Does Tarot Work: An Honest Look at Divination and Psychology

What science says about tarot predictions

There is no verifiable evidence that cards predict events. When researchers compare the “hits” of readings with random answers, they usually find no difference. That is why on Nightarot we call a spread a tool for reflection, not a forecast.

That does not mean tarot is useless. Usefulness and the ability to predict are different things: a diary, a to-do list and a talk with a friend also predict nothing, but they help you think.

The Barnum effect: why a description seems accurate

The Barnum effect is the tendency to take general statements as accurate descriptions of yourself: “sometimes you doubt your decisions, but you usually cope”. Such phrases fit almost everyone, and people mistake them for a personal hit.

A good tarot interpretation differs from general phrases in that it relies on your specific situation and offers questions, not statements. If an interpretation fits any person, its value is small.

Projection and free association

The images on the cards are ambiguous: each has figures, colours and symbols that a person reads through their own experience. Psychologists call this projection. You see on the card what is already inside you, and it helps you name feelings or thoughts that were unclear before.

In this sense the cards work like a Rorschach test, only for your current life. They do not show the future, but they are good at showing what really troubles you.

What the real use of a spread is

Where tarot should not be used

Tarot does not replace a doctor, a lawyer or a psychologist. Do not make decisions about health, money or safety on the basis of a spread alone. Be especially wary of anyone who promises to “remove a curse”, guarantees a result or asks for money for an “urgent” reading: these are signs of fraud.

Also do not use the cards to guess other people's thoughts and actions: a spread can show your reaction, but not someone else's intention.

How to get use from tarot

Ask open questions about yourself. Write your spreads down and in a month compare them with what happened: that way you will see where the cards helped you think and where you were bending the meaning to fit. Treat the result as a good conversation partner: it can suggest, but you decide.

How to test tarot on yourself

The best way to form your own opinion is a simple experiment. Once a week draw one card for the coming days and write down its meaning before the week begins. At the end of the week compare the notes with the events and honestly mark where it matched and where you were bending it to fit.

After two months you will have personal statistics. Most likely you will see that the cards did not predict events but helped you notice themes and mood. If you want to believe unconditionally in exact forecasts, this experiment will cool your expectations, and that is also a useful result.